In North Dakota — including the Grand Forks region — birth rates have fallen dramatically, sliding by roughly 35 % since 2016. When the oil-boom years were peaking, the state recorded about 17 births per 1,000 people; today it has dropped to approximately 11 per 1,000.
The steep decline is causing concern among local educators, workforce planners and community service providers as they grapple with the long-term implications for cities such as Grand Forks.
The drop in birth rates across North Dakota is intertwined with several major shifts: the post-oil-boom slowdown, economic uncertainty and changing demographic patterns. According to economists, the once-booming energy sector helped fuel population growth — but as production waned, fewer young families moved in or started households, and the birth-rate slide followed.
State data shows births peaked between 2014 and 2016 (exceeding 11,000 annually) and have since fallen to 9,557 in 2022.
For Grand Forks and surrounding communities, the repercussions are real: fewer students enrolling in schools, a smaller entry-level workforce, and potential strain on economic vitality and city planning.
Demographic shifts — including an aging population and fewer young adults in child-bearing years — further compound this trend. And while such a decline may seem gradual, the cumulative impact creates structural challenges that could reshape local services and infrastructure.
“We’re not talking about a temporary dip — this really does seem to be a broader, more systemic type of issue for the state of North Dakota. So it’s not something that any particular area should say, ‘not my concern,’” said David Flynn, a professor of economics and finance at University of North Dakota.
A local school administrator in Grand Forks added: “We’ve started tracking anticipated drops in kindergarten enrollment two or three years out. It forces us to ask: Do we change staffing models? Do we adapt facility plans? These decisions are now being made on fewer kids arriving.”
A workforce planner for the region remarked: “With fewer young families moving in and fewer births, the pool of entry-level talent — from retail to manufacturing — tightens. We’re beginning to see ripple effects in hiring and retention already.”
A sustained drop in births forewarns lower future student numbers — which can influence teacher staffing, facility use, extracurricular offerings and budget planning. Fewer births translate, over time, into fewer young workers. For an area like Grand Forks with a mix of industries and educational institutions, this could mean talent gaps or the need for immigration/relocation strategies.
Early-childhood programs, pediatric care, childcare services and family-oriented amenities all rely on a robust base of families with young children. A declining birth rate can force service-reconfigurations or raises questions about long-term viability.
Population momentum depends on births (as well as migration). With births down, the importance of attracting new residents grows — creating competition among regions and raising questions about what makes Grand Forks an attractive destination.
The dramatic 35 % drop in birth rates across North Dakota is more than a demographic footnote — for Grand Forks it may represent a turning point. As one of the state’s growing hubs of education, business and community life, Grand Forks must now reckon with how fewer births ripple into schools, workforce and civic planning.
Whether that means new strategies to attract families, re-tooling services for fewer young residents, or adapting infrastructure for a shifting age-profile, the time to act is now. Without a recalibrated approach, the effects of this birth-rate slide may be felt for decades to come.
